We need market reform now
If we manage things properly, South Africa’s energy transition could unlock the largest ever capital investment programme in our history: R1.8-trillion over the next 10 years. This can be leveraged to rejuvenate local manufacturing, create meaningful jobs, and stimulate innovation and skills development for young people.
But “managing things properly” means dealing with two key issues:
Market reform is needed in South Africa both to ensure a competitive electricity sector for the benefit of customers, and to attract private sector investment for new generation and transmission.
No! Some of the groundwork has already been done. The recent signing into law of the Electricity Regulation Amendment Act (ERA) is a leap forward in reforming the market, because it makes provision for a multi-market power system with much more flexibility. This is significantly more attractive for businesses wanting to invest in energy projects, while also resulting in a better deal for consumers.
An independent Transmission System Operator (TSO) is a key enabler to a competitive multi-market. The TSO will have four functions:
In this new model, all legacy power purchase agreements (PPAs) and Eskom coal-fired generators will be placed on 5 year vesting contracts that effectively push generation capacity from coal into a competitive market – where some coal capacity will be “out of the money”.
South Africa needs an unprecedented generation and transmission infrastructure rollout to ensure its energy security and economic growth.
There are 3 main drivers for South Africa’s market reform:
The State and Eskom have limited funds.
They have high debt and a constrained balance sheet, and will not be able to fund the entire R1.8-trillion needed over the next 10 years.
There is also investment uncertainty. Developers will need to be sure that they will obtain a fair return on their investment if they’re to put such large amounts behind the expansion.
There is also a growing need for industrialisation and job growth. If we attract sufficient investment, we will be able to drive industrial investment, growth and sustainable job creation across a number of value chains
There are some risks that need to be managed during market reform such as a reduced security of supply. If the market is fully competitive, investments might move away from reliable energy sources and focus on cheaper options which could make energy supply less stable.
Price volatility is also a potential risk. In a competitive market, prices could fluctuate a lot. This means electricity could become unaffordable when there’s not enough supply.
Finally, there are South Africa’s broader development objectives. Without some degree of market control, it might be hard to meet certain development goals. For example, programmes to help poorer areas or specific targets for energy types might not happen on their own without intervention.
Market reform is the most critical element of South Africa’s energy system. But to ensure market reform happens successfully, a lot more work needs to be done.
#SwitchonMzansi
We need market reform now
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A Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) is a long-term contract between a buyer and a supplier of electricity that defines the terms of the agreement.
The cost added by producing one additional unit of a product or service.
Capital costs are fixed, one-time expenses incurred on the purchase of equipment used in the production of goods
Variable renewable energy (VRE) or intermittent renewable energy sources (IRES) are renewable energy sources that are not adjustable due to their fluctuating nature, such as wind power and solar power
A transmission grid is an interconnected network of electrical transmission lines that moves electricity from power plants to distribution systems and end users
The capacity factor is the ratio of the actual electrical energy output over a certain period of time to the maximum possible output if the power source was operating at full capacity all the time. Essentially, it illustrates the efficiency and dependability of an energy source.
Scheduling supply to meet current demand for electricity
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A petajoule (PJ) is a unit of energy measurement that is equal to one million billion joules (10 to the power 15). It can also be expressed as 278 gigawatt hours. One petajoule is equal to 31.60 million cubic meters of natural gas.
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Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is natural gas that has been cooled down to liquid form for ease and safety of non-pressurized storage or transport.
Nitric oxide (NO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) are two gases whose molecules are made of nitrogen and oxygen atoms. These nitrogen oxides contribute to the problem of air pollution, playing roles in the formation of both smog and acid rain. They are released into Earth’s atmosphere by both natural and human-generated sources.
Sulfur oxides are a group of molecules made of sulfur and oxygen atoms, such as sulfur dioxide (SO2) and sulfur trioxide (SO3). Sulfur oxides are pollutants that contribute to the formation of acid rain, as well as particulate pollution. Some are released into Earth’s atmosphere by natural sources, but most are the result of human activities.
Particulates are microscopic particles of solid or liquid matter suspended in the air. Sources of particulate matter can be natural or anthropogenic. They have impacts on climate and precipitation that adversely affect human health, in ways additional to direct inhalation.
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The Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty on climate change. It was adopted by 196 Parties at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris, France, on 12 December 2015.
An integrated system brings together several elements to create single cohesive unit
The energy trilemma is a framework that energy policymakers use to balance three objectives:
Multi-market system – a hybrid market model designed to accommodate various defined transactions (market transactions, physical bilateral transactions and regulated transactions).
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Dispatchable generation refers to sources of electricity that can be programmed on demand at the request of power grid operators, according to market needs. Dispatchable generators may adjust their power output according to an order.
Net Zero means cutting carbon emissions to a small amount of residual emissions that can be absorbed and durably stored by nature and other carbon dioxide removal measures, leaving zero in the atmosphere.
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