Toolkit 6: Reforming the energy market

#SwitchonMzansi

We need market reform now

If we manage things properly, South Africa’s energy transition could unlock the largest ever capital investment programme in our history: R1.8-trillion over the next 10 years. This can be leveraged to rejuvenate local manufacturing, create meaningful jobs, and stimulate innovation and skills development for young people.

But “managing things properly” means dealing with two key issues:

  • Getting rid of uncertainty around the regulatory environment;
  • Reforming the way energy is bought and sold.

Market reform is needed in South Africa both to ensure a competitive electricity sector for the benefit of customers, and to attract private sector investment for new generation and transmission.

Are we starting from scratch?

No! Some of the groundwork has already been done. The recent signing into law of the Electricity Regulation Amendment Act (ERA) is a leap forward in reforming the market, because it makes provision for a multi-market power system with much more flexibility. This is significantly more attractive for businesses wanting to invest in energy projects, while also resulting in a better deal for consumers.

An independent Transmission System Operator (TSO) is a key enabler to a competitive multi-market. The TSO will have four functions:

  1. A market operator that operates a day ahead and intra-day power market.
  2. A central purchasing agency that holds vesting contracts with all legacy generators.
  1. A network operator that owns, maintains and generates revenues from the grid.
  2. A system operator that ensures technical system stability.

In this new model, all legacy power purchase agreements (PPAs) and Eskom coal-fired generators will be placed on 5 year vesting contracts that effectively push generation capacity from coal into a competitive market – where some coal capacity will be “out of the money”.

What do we need investment for?

South Africa needs an unprecedented generation and transmission infrastructure rollout to ensure its energy security and economic growth.

  • Installed utility scale generation capacity will have to increase by more than 5 times – to R1 500-billion.
  • Transmission infrastructure rollout will have to increase by more than three times – to R300-billion.

There are 3 main drivers for South Africa’s market reform:

The State and Eskom have limited funds.

They have high debt and a constrained balance sheet, and will not be able to fund the entire R1.8-trillion needed over the next 10 years.

There is also investment uncertainty. Developers will need to be sure that they will obtain a fair return on their investment if they’re to put such large amounts behind the expansion.

There is also a growing need for industrialisation and job growth. If we attract sufficient investment, we will be able to drive industrial investment, growth and sustainable job creation across a number of value chains

There are some risks that need to be managed during market reform such as a reduced security of supply. If the market is fully competitive, investments might move away from reliable energy sources and focus on cheaper options which could make energy supply less stable.

Price volatility is also a potential risk. In a competitive market, prices could fluctuate a lot. This means electricity could become unaffordable when there’s not enough supply.

Finally, there are South Africa’s broader development objectives. Without some degree of market control, it might be hard to meet certain development goals. For example, programmes to help poorer areas or specific targets for energy types might not happen on their own without intervention.

So much still to do

Market reform is the most critical element of South Africa’s energy system. But to ensure market reform happens successfully, a lot more work needs to be done.

#SwitchonMzansi

We need market reform now